Report: Countries arming for cyber warfare

A new report issued by McAfee, Inc., entitled “Virtually Here: The Age of Cyber Warfare” reveals that the global cyberarms race has moved from fiction to reality.  The report found that politically motivated cyberattacks have increased, and five countries – the United States, Russia, France, Israel and China – are now armed with cyberweapons.

“McAfee began to warn of the global cyberarms race more than two years ago, but now we’re seeing increasing evidence that it’s become real,” said Dave DeWalt, McAfee President and CEO.  “Now several nations around the world are actively engaged in cyberwar-like preparations and attacks.  Today, the weapons are not nuclear, but virtual, and everyone must adapt to these threats.”

... the efforts of nation-states to build increasingly sophisticated cyberattack capabilities, and in some cases demonstrate a willingness to use them, suggest that a Cyber Cold War may have already begun.

McAfee, Inc. — Virtually Here: The Age of Cyber Warfare

The report includes insights from dozens of the world’s leading experts in international relations, including Dr. Jamie Saunders, counselor at the British Embassy in Washington D.C. and security experts with experience at the U.S. National Security Agency and the Australian Attorney-General’s Department.  Former White House advisor Paul Kurtz compiled the report on McAfee’s behalf.

The report reveals how the private sector will get caught in the crossfire.  Government disclosure is a major issue, as cyber initiatives and information are often classified by the government, hindering cybercrime defense in the public and private sector.  Experts call for a clear definition and an open debate on cyberwarfare.  Without an open discussion among the government, private sector and the public, future cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure could be devastating.

This year’s report identifies the following challenges:

• Cyberwarfare is a Reality – Over the past year, the increase in politically motivated cyberattacks has raised alarm and caution, with targets including the White House, Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Secret Service and Department of Defense in the U.S. alone.  Nation-states are actively developing cyberwarfare capabilities and involved in the cyberarms race, targeting government networks and critical infrastructures.  The result of a cyberattack of this nature can result in physical damage and death – it’s not just a war between computers; cyberwarfare can cause real devastation.
• Cyberweapons Are Targeting Critical Infrastructure – Attackers are not only building their cyberdefenses, but cyberoffenses, targeting infrastructure such as power grids, transportation, telecommunication, finance and water supplies, because damage can be done quickly and with little effort.  In most developed countries, critical infrastructure is connected to the Internet and lacks proper security functions, leaving these installations vulnerable to attacks.  Without the appropriate protection combined with the current lack of preparedness, an attack on these infrastructures would be detrimental and will cause more destruction than any previous attacks.
• Cyberwar is Undefined – Cyberwarfare entangles so many different actors in so many different ways that the rules of engagement are not clearly defined.  Additionally, there is debate on how much responsibility should be placed on organizations to protect and educate the public on preventing cyberattacks.  Without a proper definition in place, it is nearly impossible to determine when a political response or threat of military action is warranted.
• Private Sector is the Most at Risk – Critical infrastructure is privately-owned in many developed countries, making it a huge target for cyberwarfare.  The private sector relies heavily on the government to prevent cyberattacks.  If virtual shooting starts, governments, corporations and private citizens may get caught in the crossfire.  Without insight into the government’s cyberdefense strategy, the private sector is not able to be proactive and take the proper precautions.  Experts call for a public discussion on cyberwarfare, bringing it out of the shadows.

“Nations have been reluctant to use those capabilities because of the likelihood that [a big cyberattack] could do harm to their own country.  The world is so interconnected these days”, says Dmitri Alperovitch, Vice President of Threat Research at McAfee.

However, experts are putting dots together and seeing patterns that indicate that there is increasing intelligence gathering and building of sophisticated cyberattack capabilities.

“While we have not yet seen a ‘hot’ cyberwar between major powers, the efforts of nation-states to build increasingly sophisticated cyberattack capabilities, and in some cases demonstrate a willingness to use them, suggest that a ‘Cyber Cold War’ may have already begun,” the report says.

Over the next 20 to 30 years, cyberattacks will increasingly become a component of war.

William Crowell, fmr. Deputy Director, U.S. National Security Agency

For instance, Alperovitch speculates that the July 4 denial-of-service attacks on Web sites in the U.S. and South Korea could have been a test by North Korea to see if flooding South Korean networks and the transcontinental communications between the U.S. and South Korea would disrupt the ability of the U.S. military in South Korea to communicate with military leaders in Washington, D.C., and the Pacific Command in Hawaii.  “The ability of the North Koreans to disable cybercommunications between the U.S. and South Korea would give them a huge strategic advantage [if they were to attack South Korea]”, Alperovitch said.

There have been earlier attacks that smack of cyberwarfare too.  Estonian government and commercial sites suffered debilitating denial-of-service attacks in 2007, and last year sites in Georgia were attacked during the South Ossetia war, orchestrated by civilian attackers.  Recently, in August of 2009, Twitter, Facebook and other sites suffered denial-of-service attacks that appeared to be aimed at a single university professor in Georgia who had been blogging about the Georgian war.  Those attacks, timed closely with the one-year anniversary of the conflict, affected hundreds of millions of users.

“Over the next 20 to 30 years, cyberattacks will increasingly become a component of war,” says William Crowell, a former Deputy Director of the U.S. National Security Agency.  “What I can’t foresee is whether networks will be so pervasive and unprotected that cyber war operations will stand alone.”

The complete McAfee Virtual Criminology Report 2009 is available for download at http://resources.mcafee.com/content/NACriminologyReport2009NF